Lichess will no longer cooperate with the USCF and the Saint Louis Chess Club

Re:Lichess will no longer cooperate with the USCF and the Sa... by mbg721 on Thursday August 10, 2023 @03:25PM (#37080592)

The problem with that is that if the accused is only 30% likely to have done something, then there may be an equal or greater likelihood that the accuser is maliciously lying (allowing for some likelihood of genuine misunderstanding).

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Re:Lichess will no longer cooperate with the USCF and the Sa... by atakan_gurkan on Thursday August 17, 2023 @07:05AM (#37159836)

Not necessarily. Unless the presence of the accusation already was used to get that 30% number, you also need to take into account the a priori probability of someone maliciously lying (or better yet, the particular accuser to be lying in this case) and apply Bayes's theorem.

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Re:Lichess will no longer cooperate with the USCF and the Sa... by mbg721 on Thursday August 17, 2023 @08:31AM (#37160578)

I should have expected Simpson's Paradox here. Nevertheless, I think the possibility of witch-hunting is high.

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