Re:Microgrids Are Giving Power to the People
by hadlock on Thursday August 10, 2023 @03:37PM
(#37080720)
Roofs generally last for 30 years. In my neighborhood at least, which was all built-out in a 3 year period in the mid-1970s, most of the roofs were replaced about 10-15 years ago (they're rated for 30 years, but everyone pushes their luck as far as possible). Because they replaced their roof pre-~2014 it wasn't cheap or common to do so and thus very little solar was installed at that point.
Those who have had their roof replaced in the last 5-7 years went ahead and put solar on top. My guess would be that when the neighborhood "cycles" through new roofs again in ~15 years, more than half will elect to put in solar or solar/battery combo. We are due for a new roof in 2-3 years and plan on doing solar at that time, and possibly even battery.
Now that energy storage is getting radically cheaper too, I think there's a decent chance that what you predict could happen. It would be... enormously bad.
And I agree load growth plays a part in all this. The big growth will come from electric vehicles--once cars are all electric, that will roughly double the electricity demand.