It's not an anecdote, it's physics.

EPA created a repeatable test where the car runs at a certain speeds, most likely without wind resistance.

If you drive faster, the car will use more energy per mile therefore will have lower range than the EPA estimate.

If you drive slower, they car will use less energy per mile therefore will have higher range than the EPA estimate.

If there's head or side wind, the car will use more energy => lower range.

Someone drove Model 3 for 606 miles, at extremely low speeds: https://www.theverge.com/2018/5/29/17405906/tesla-model-3-hy...

And yet, data from 3300 drivers disagrees with your physics. What’s more likely: the data is wrong or the model is flawed?

3300 drivers did 30km/h tests?

Are you looking at a different article? In my reading of the linked article there are three anecdotes of ~200 mile trips, most assuredly not done at 30km/h.