Re:The Infamous Coin Toss
by petermcneeley on Wednesday August 02, 2023 @10:13PM
(#36980534)
This simulation is the collective wealth over N players for M times. It is increasing.
https://coin-n.streamlit.app/?utm_medium=oembed
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If every individual in a population is definitely doomed to lose all their wealth, how could the collective wealth increase?
Re:The Infamous Coin Toss
by petermcneeley on Thursday August 03, 2023 @12:35AM
(#36981405)
For infinite rounds in a finite population yes they will all lose their wealth. But if the population >> rounds this is not true.
I don't think population >> rounds is a general rule. It only works (most of the time) for this case because +50% and -40% are relatively close to each other.
If you change the rules to, say, +100% and -90%, they lose even when population > 20 * rounds. I'm sure there is a statistical formula that can be used to estimate the optimal number of rounds.