If it is real you can expect an influx of funding into improving the material, similar to how the discovery of the first practical superconductor led to finding a bunch of others with a steady increase in working temperature. But this time the funding will be much larger because the market for a room temperature superconductor are far, far larger than for one that requires a large cooling installation. I figure a few years at most for improvements on the yield to the point that you can start thinking about commercialization. The first party to complete this will make bank in an obscene way.

> I figure a few years at most for improvements on the yield to the point that you can start thinking about commercialization.

There is no guarantee that "if this is real" that there's a workable path to current densities and manufacturing ease that leads to commercialization-- ever.

And if there's a path, it's difficult to predict how long following that path will take.

YBCO dates to 1986 and requires much less of a cooling installation than the superconductors that are in use today. We are just reaching commercial use in the past few years...

Yes, but that's also because the commercial applications of something that needs to be cooled to −180.2°C are also extremely limited.

Indeed, there is no guarantee. But typically, once something is invented there is improvement over time.