Yeah, casino thesis with attention economy. Think MrBeast videos. I think things are trending towards randomness way more than neofeudalism or space socialism.

> Don't you think this reasoning is a bit black and white?

> This is not a trick question, those are genuinely the only two outcomes I can think of.

Only being able to see the two extreme outcomes is pretty much the definition of black / white thinking.

What normally happens is somewhere in the middle.

> Can you see any other possible outcome from the vast majority of employment being made obsolete?

There are an infinite number of possible outcomes.

Probable outcomes are much smaller, but again there’s way more than two.

Life ain’t binary.

This is a nice rant, but it doesn't really answer the question. I understand what black and white is and that those are two extremes.

The task at hand, though, was to come up with a concrete scenario and you've failed at that.

Back when I was in the depths of drug addiction, I was arrogant enough to believe I could think of enough permutations of possible outcomes given input variables etc.

But I was always wrong. I couldn’t predict the future — and neither can you. None of us can.

> The task at hand, though, was to come up with a concrete scenario and you've failed at that.

Nah. The task I assigned myself (I don’t work for you) was to highlight the error in your logical reasoning.

Truth and reality is a lot more analogue. It’s never two options.

Might be a good take home exercise for you to come up with a few boring and likely options that sit somewhere in the middle of dystopia and utopia.

But you don’t have to.

Then we are free to work on harder and larger scale problems. The work will go on.

To start, I think it's better to avoid thinking in terms of an "outcome". That word implies an end scenario, such as total destruction of mankind.

The future will probably go through many different stages, also varying geographically.

There are many science fiction novels that explore futures with androids. Most of them have a different scenario.

I personally think that life will not change all too much. We will still mostly be busy eating, sleeping, trying to find a sex partner, and trying to avoid dying.

One random thing that I think will change society more than AI is human cloning -- things will probably change as soon as some rich people can buy 100,000 clones of themselves.

And that's just one random thing. Extending your life to an age of 10,000 years is another. Or a third world war because of climate change. Or some new financial derivative. All these should be factored in if you want to predict the future. More than two options :)