> AOS relief from Congress is also not likely

This isn’t right—it would be more accurate to say AOS relief from the GOP is not likely. Democrats nearly passed an amendment as part of the budget bill in 2021, which would have allowed AOS after a 2 year wait (exempt from EB caps). The bill was unfortunately blocked by the Parliamentarian: https://www.npr.org/2021/09/19/1038776731/in-a-blow-to-democ...

Democratic Senate leadership didn’t feel confident about the odds of overriding the Parliamentarian due to Sinema and Manchin, and that’s how that died.

If (a) Democrats regain the House, and (b) Democrats get a Senate majority w/o conservatives like Manchin — then it’s basically guaranteed that immigration reform will pass. Immigration reform is an extremely high priority for the Democratic Party.

Immigration reform can't be passed through the Senate's special budget procedures (this is what the parliamentarian blocked) and thus will require 60 votes to pass. Partly for this reason I don't think we'll get immigration reform for the foreseeable future, at all.

I mean, sure, it may be GOP right now, but big picture, INA was passed in early 90s, and both parties have had their fair share of power over the last 30 years. If they didn't do anything over 30 years, it's hard to pin it on one party.