I think I would take the other side of this bet. I do think that there will be at least one major U.S. urban area that is rendered permanently uninhabitable at some point this century, and the first one will be somewhere in southern Florida, but I don’t have any confidence in timing or specific local geographies.

My prediction is that large-scale abandonment will be due to persistent flooding and inundation that can’t be solved with sea walls/gates or levees, and not a hurricane-induced flood or storm surge. I don’t think that will happen in the next 10 years, though it certainly could.