> If I could take Elon's ratio of "I said it would work vs. it's real and it does", I would, and so would any sane person.

I want to be optimistic too, but you're missing Falcon 9s worth of broken Elon promises.

This isn't an exhaustive list, but certainly a more complete: https://elonmusk.today I recommend starting from the bottom.

I'll just say that if he were a baseball player, he would be a pretty bad one. The odds that an Elon prediction pans out are fairly bad. If a bookie were available, you'd want to take the under on every single one.