Coming from the SF Bay Area, if you miss a train you'll probably have a minimum 15 minute wait (at least at the stations and times I use), often 2-3x more. People run down the stairs to the platform, shove their way in, and often block the doors from closing if they're squeezing in at the last minute (which extends the last minute, making the train later for the next stop.)
Also, "taking the train" doesn't just mean showing up at the train station. It means checking the schedule and timing it so you show up at the right time. I don't just walk from place to place, using the train as a way of getting around as needed. I plan it out. Or I don't, and use a car instead, which everything subtly encourages.
I agree, frequency makes a huge difference in actual practice.
But the commuter rail out to me only runs about once an hour. I can deal with that for a "9 to 5" work thing where driving would have to deal with horrific traffic anyway. But it's a total non-starter for an evening event where I would have to time my return including possibly dealing with subway variance to a commuter rail station. (And it takes significantly longer than driving at that time of day anyway.)
The denser the population the better mass transit works and the more burden having one's own car produces.
However, things get too spread out and it breaks down--including that transit runs on a sufficiently spaced-out schedule that people with a choice just don't want to take it.