The Bear Market Has Nearly Been Erased, Fewer Than 20 Months After It Began

Re:The Bear Market Has Nearly Been Erased, Fewer Than 20 Mon... by mattmcknight on Sunday July 23, 2023 @09:40AM (#36835204)

I find index funds are nearly decoupled from the fundamentals except for the occasional adds/subtracts from the index. They might be optimal for the individual investor, but are adding so much noise to the price signal for the individual stock that you have to use option pairs to actually bet on a company doing well.

So based on the boomer 401k theory, we should see steady declines as their investment rate goes net negative by 2030?

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Re:The Bear Market Has Nearly Been Erased, Fewer Than 20 Mon... by detourdog on Sunday July 23, 2023 @09:52AM (#36835291)

I cant believe the financial returns my wife’s financial advisor promises. He describes it as the magic of index funds. He should know he was in band before settling down and taking over the family firm.

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Re:The Bear Market Has Nearly Been Erased, Fewer Than 20 Mon... by di4na on Sunday July 23, 2023 @10:29AM (#36835632)

You are missing something. Where else would it go?

The returns do not matter. What matters is finding something.

Also it depends on share buybacks. If they mostly sell to shares buybacks, every sale actually prop up the price. Also uni endowment and charity funds keep growing with rules to never take money out, so they will be the one buying from pensions.

I highly expect stuff to stay bear until we actively work on it.

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Re:The Bear Market Has Nearly Been Erased, Fewer Than 20 Mon... by throwaway5959 on Sunday July 23, 2023 @10:35AM (#36835703)

High yield savings accounts at 5%, if real inflation is at 3% and you have 2 million saved, that’s 40k/year plus Social Security for another 40k/year. Combine that with a paid off house and Medicare and I would say they’d be doing fine.

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Re:The Bear Market Has Nearly Been Erased, Fewer Than 20 Mon... by di4na on Sunday July 23, 2023 @10:47AM (#36835821)

Sure but that would not solve any of the problems mentioned. It would make it worse.

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Re:The Bear Market Has Nearly Been Erased, Fewer Than 20 Mon... by wonderwonder on Sunday July 23, 2023 @11:20AM (#36836168)

I think the question of "Where else would it go?" is a real one that is currently driving the Blackrocks of the world to create BTC etfs. Its another vehicle to park the money in.

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Re:The Bear Market Has Nearly Been Erased, Fewer Than 20 Mon... by di4na on Sunday July 23, 2023 @11:32AM (#36836288)

Or VC creating startups with no real business plans in general.

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Re:The Bear Market Has Nearly Been Erased, Fewer Than 20 Mon... by mattmcknight on Tuesday July 25, 2023 @11:26PM (#36872741)

> Where else would it go?

Where else would what go?

> If they mostly sell to shares buybacks, every sale actually prop up the price.

Only if companies have enough cash to do so. Buybacks made sense more sense in a low interest rate environment, but are riskier if they have to borrow to buy their stock back.

> Also uni endowment and charity funds keep growing with rules to never take money out, so they will be the one buying from pensions.

But again, is this amount as much as the amount that is to be sold, and at what price?

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