There's options between jail and nothing, like fines on the institution, bans on receiving grants etc.

As for low probability of being caught, nah, academic fraud gets caught all the time. There's so much out there it's like shooting fish in a barrel. Elizabeth Bik primarily goes after biomedical studies that can be spotted via image analysis and has said:

“Science has a huge problem: 100s (1000s?) of science papers with obvious photoshops that have been reported, but that are all swept under the proverbial rug, with no action or only an author-friendly correction … There are dozens of examples where journals rather accept a clean (better photoshopped?) figure redo than asking the authors for a thorough explanation.”

University vice presidents are almost always reluctant to get involved, and is that so surprising when fraud is so widespread that the President of Stanford is caught doing it? All you do by exposing fraud is make enemies. Theo Baker is an undergrad studying CS so has many options outside of academia but if he didn't, would he really have shot the king like this?

Enforce sanctions against the people who are so lazy about fraud they get caught by random volunteers on Twitter, then worry about how to find the rest.