No it doesn’t! This is an astoundingly stupid argument. Doubling your odds of winning is an edge.
Re:Tricking Monty Hall
by rahimnathwani on Saturday July 15, 2023 @11:02AM
(#36737425)
"wow this is a game not worth playing because there’s no edge"
The prize is a brand new car.
The optimal strategy gives you a 2/3 chance of winning.
Well, even if I try to embrace your argument — life itself is an iterated version of a more general decision game. It doesn't have to be Monty Hall specifically.
Over the course of your life, if whenever you have a choice to make you choose the lower probability strategy (here with the Monty Hall example it's not even an expected-value vs. variance tradeoff, switching is just all-around more optimal) you will most definitely end up worse off in the end.
Ah but I’m not ignoring the context. I’m expanding the context beyond “fun math puzzle” to “wow this is a game not worth playing because there’s no edge”.
Again, only applies to the non-iterated version. If you find an analog of monty hall that gives you many at-bats, play away.