If you assume no one knows the context of your reference, why would you use it? Regardless, I included the details because they're interesting and one sometimes learns interesting things on HN.

Anyway, the lesson of the hot hand fallacy is that sometimes intuitive predictions turn out to be right, despite the best efforts of low-context contrarians. But I don't think that was your point.

> If you assume no one knows the context of your reference, why would you use it?

You are the only one who is confused.