An ultimate win must be "likely" to prevail in a PI, and this judge said it was. "Likely" and "probable" are synonyms".[1] Apparently some courts do apply an relaxed standard in First Amendment cases of "reasonably likely"[2], but that's not clearly right and it's also not a quibble over whether "likely" is "probable" (which it is).

[1] https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/likely#synonyms

[2] https://www.americanbar.org/groups/litigation/publications/l...