conversely, I think we have been in the singularity since the late 1700's. For many thousands of years human manufacturing capability was effectively flat, a few blips and bumps but the advancement was generally steady and linear.

And then in the late 1700's things changed. The graph went hockey stick and has stayed exponential since. However from inside this bubble there is a sort of tech dilatation where everything appears normal and flat and it is only the future that has exponential growth.

Flat? I don't think so. I'm at a coffee shop and looking around me, this is very different from just 20 years ago. People with laptops and smaetphones around me. Just 20 years ago, that same place saw a few CS major nerds with their laptops, everybody else sat with a book or some paper to write on or reading a paper newspaper. Still with a latte, but tech has changed everybody's life dramatically in 20 years. 20 years from now I'm again expecting at least as big a change.

Definitely exponential.

You're agreeing with the comment you replied to. they were saying it was flat until ~1700 or so.

They wrote that it "appears flat". I tried to contradict that.

> However from inside this bubble there is a sort of tech dilatation where everything appears normal and flat and it is only the future that has exponential growth.