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A comment on The future of AI according to thousands of forecasters. Parent comment

Re:The future of AI according to thousands of forecasters by yunohn on Tuesday June 27, 2023 @04:28PM (#36498211)
Anyone can signup and vote, so I assume it tends towards the majority option tbh. Seems like obviously noisy data.
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Re:The future of AI according to thousands of forecasters by tersh on Tuesday June 27, 2023 @04:46PM (#36498401)
The Metaculus prediction weights predictors by how accurate they've been.
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Re:The future of AI according to thousands of forecasters by yunohn on Tuesday June 27, 2023 @04:56PM (#36498523)
Yes, but if voters are voting the majority (and probable) decision, that just continues the trend of predicting obvious outcomes.

It’s not something to do with understanding domain knowledge and voting based on scientific research.

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Re:The future of AI according to thousands of forecasters by avionical on Tuesday June 27, 2023 @05:36PM (#36498998)
I wouldn't say AGI in 10 years is predicting an obvious outcome. And the same goes for many other questions on the site.
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Re:The future of AI according to thousands of forecasters by yunohn on Thursday June 29, 2023 @01:40PM (#36523857)
It will trend towards the major opinion as it gets closer to 10yrs. They haven’t been around long enough.
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