> As if anyone is good at predicting the future.

Whoever predicts the right direction, (and when the time is right) puts money where their mouth is, stands a shot at unseating... the alt man.

  I think the way to use these big ideas is not to try to identify a precise point in the future and then ask yourself how to get from here to there, like the popular image of a visionary. You'll be better off if you operate like Columbus and just head in a general westerly direction. Don't try to construct the future like a building, because your current blueprint is almost certainly mistaken. Start with something you know works, and when you expand, expand westward.
  
  The popular image of the visionary is someone with a clear view of the future, but empirically it may be better to have a blurry one.

paulgraham.com/ambitious.html