And I'm saying a 100% hit rate is not possible. Your ability to determine an accurate numerical hit rate is also very difficult to impossible.
If we treat this kind of thing as an oracle rather than admit that it's a flawed heuristic, even a good heuristic being ultimately flawed, I think that's pretty dangerous. One has to be extremely humble at the task of evaluating people, because it's difficult and error-prone.
Well, it isn't possible because humans are not deterministic, but I imagine the manager in question could possibly have a high 'hit rate'.
Re:Jessica Livingston
by alexpotato on Friday June 23, 2023 @05:23PM
(#36452326)
You bring up a good point in that false negatives could never be tracked.
E.g. if the manager in this story said "no" and that person wasn't hired, how would you know she was correct?
I will say that there was a non-zero number of "she said 'no', person was hired anyway and it turned out to not be good". As sister/cousin threads have pointed out: this might be a self fulfilling prophecy.
(that doesn't mean we should do it in courts to convict people)