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A comment on Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes. Parent comment

Re:Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to ... by gus_massa on Friday June 16, 2023 @03:14PM (#36362249)
From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_2021%E2%80... there were 44 earthquakes with a magnitude >= 7.0 in the last 2.5 years. That is one every 17 days. The GP is almost correct: There is a high chance [1] of an earthquake somewhere in the world, including oceans, in 17 days.

[1] If you want to be fancy with probabilities, 64% of at least one earthquake. In some 17 days periods you will get no earthquake and in others you will get more than one earthquake. In average you will get one.

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Re:Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to ... by gus_massa on Friday June 16, 2023 @05:26PM (#36364137)
Too late to edit: The correct number is 21 instead of 17.

The 64% is still 64% because if N is big enough it almost doesn't depend if you consider something with a probability of 1/17 in 17 days or something with a probability of 1/21 in 21 days.

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