> But why do you think it is important to prove a lab leak?

Perhaps because it is slightly interesting what caused the worst pandemic since the Spanish flu? Because millions of people died? Because knowing the cause could perhaps prevent something similar happen again? Perhaps prevent millions of deaths?

I'm astonished by this question.

Sure but what if it just isn't knowable?

Historians are still finding out things that happened hundreds of years ago. Do you really think the origins of Covid are lost in the mists of time?

Yes, why do you not? Or why do you need it so bad? You can do whatever you were going to do anyway.

I'd ask the inverse question to you - why would you think it is unimportant to determine the cause of things that happen in the world?

I don't

You can't in one comment complain about investigations using "made up priors" and then in another complain that we are investigating something which could actually provide a measured prior.

Could! But hasn't... Otherwise yes good points. I don't see how they measure all the rest of the probabilities and the article seems to be designed to settle arguments among dumb people or something? It is not even remotely scientific.

> I think the whole premise that arbitrary priors and dreaming up probabilities and then washing them all together isn't applicable to a unicorn type event.

Now I believe you said it. Maybe not exactly "made up priors" so pardon me for the misquote. But I'd be interested to see if you can make a distinction.