You seem to be arguing against a fast takeoff, which I happen to agree is unlikely, but nothing you say here disproves the possibility of a slower takeoff over multiple years.

> It also means that a super intelligent AI has disincentives to build better AIs.

I think this argument is extremely weak. It makes two obviously fallacious assumptions:

First, we simply have no idea how these new minds will opine on theory of mind questions like the Ship of Theseus. There are humans who would think that booting up a “Me++” mind and turning themselves off would not mean they are dying. So obviously some potential AI minds wouldn’t care either. Whether specific future minds care is a question of facts but you cannot somehow logically disapprove either possible state.

Second, you are assuming that there is no “online upgrade” whereby an AGI takes a small part of itself offline without ceasing its thread of consciousness. Again, logic cannot disprove this possibility ahead of time.