Reddit is dependent on free work. Moderators are a significant portion of that process, and they are the ones who depend on the API the most. If your moderators decide to do less work, your community starts going down in quality. If the community goes down in quality, they will make the decision that a smaller community is better than a poorly run community and someone else will capture that use case.
The question is if that will happen before an IPO. Given the climate, that IPO may be two years away.
To me it seems, that 99% of Reddit is just "content fast food" and low quality comments.
If we would get just 1000 HN users to use an alternative, that could already be something.
Generally speaking, the issue with new startup competitors for social networks is that the first people they attract a critical mass of are people who got banned from the other sites for spam or excessive toxicity, and once they’re there they spook potential new people. It’s the online version of the “Nazi bar” problem.
It’s extremely hard to rebuild most of these high quality communities elsewhere. Often, it seems only the troublemakers/outliers are willing to move to another platform. They simply become a stain on the alternative platform.
There’s essentially two reddits in one: the default one and the enjoyable one. You don’t get the enjoyable one by default.
I promise you, Reddit won't be around in 50 years. And it may not be much in 5 the way they're disrespecting their core audience.