Best I can figure, Big Oil pricing is based on what the market will bear. Versus in response to supply, demand, cost of production, and so forth.

Primary evidence is their profitability.

Every couple of years, some politician gets some press for initiating an investigation into price gouging. If a hearing actually happens, no one ever makes the mistake of saying anything concrete.

Nothing ever changes.

And now we have analysis which shows that 50% (?) of recent consumer price inflation is just Big Oil charging more.

And nothing will change.

Silver lining is that price gouging will hasten switch to EVs, so yay for small victories.

(FWIW, my uncle works in a refinery making diesel. He couldn't explain pricing. So what hope do noobs like me have of lifting the veil?)

That really isn't true: supply is very important, which is why OPEC tries to restrict it and things fall apart when Russia pumps too much or a Saudi Sheik decides to buy a new private jumbo jet. Also, the cost of production in the Americas is high enough that it isn't even profitable to bother unless oil is over $100/barrel.

My guess is that things won't change as much as diesel fuel becomes more niche in terms of distribution, but the pressure will be against future price rises, especially if that hastens the move to EVs. The Saudis have to sell their oil before there is no demand for it.

You're certainly correct; price of gasoline (petrol) tracks with crude oil.

I meant to read up on govt's allegations of price gouging (profiteering), to maybe understand what's going on, but got distracted.

So many outrages, so little time.

Cheers.