News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:How much of AI's recent success is due to the Forer Effect? by marcusverus on Friday May 26, 2023 @01:52PM (#36087504)
We agreed on a definition of artificial intelligence--the Turing test--for 50 years. The goalpost was clearly established, widely agreed upon, and promptly abandoned when chatbots blew past it.

I'm convinced that when the dust has settled and historians look back to decide on THE point in time at which we achieved AI or even AGI, that time will not be in the future, but in the past.

Re:How much of AI's recent success is due to the Forer Effect? by dragonwriter on Friday May 26, 2023 @02:31PM (#36087947)
> We agreed on a definition of artificial intelligence–the Turing test–for 50 years.

No, we didn’t. There was plenty of disagreement over it. Heck, the Chinese Room is very popular rejection fundamentally of the premise of it.

That aside, even if in a blind scenario (where the builders didn’t know the criteria used to test) being able to fool humans in linguistic interaction would be reasonably likely to be a good test of general intelligence, LLM’s are about as an obvious of a direct and deliberate attempt to Goodhart’s Law the Turing Test as one could imagine.

Using a particular capacity to test a more general capacity is obviously vulnerable to systems build to specialize in the tested capacity, as opposed to those that have it as a consequence of general ability.

Re:How much of AI's recent success is due to the Forer Effect? by scott_w on Friday May 26, 2023 @02:22PM (#36087855)
The fact it was defined a long time ago isn’t good enough. If, upon passing the test, you realise the test was insufficient, you change the test. You don’t shrug your shoulders and go “well it must be right because a guy said so 50 years ago!”
Re:How much of AI's recent success is due to the Forer Effect? by JimtheCoder on Friday May 26, 2023 @03:07PM (#36088366)
"I'm convinced that when the dust has settled and historians look back to decide on THE point in time at which we achieved AI or even AGI, that time will not be in the future, but in the past."

If historians are looking back to decide the point, by definition doesn't it have to be in the past? Historians looking back to the future doesn't make sense...

Re:How much of AI's recent success is due to the Forer Effect? by epylar on Friday May 26, 2023 @06:02PM (#36090026)
Historians in 2050 could look back at 2040, which would be their past but our future.