Re:IRS Files $44B Claims Against Bankrupt FTX
by kelnos on Thursday May 11, 2023 @03:33PM
(#35907280)
I think it's reasonable to believe in efficient markets, but also understand that pricing in markets is a) made up of imperfect information, and b) subject to outside influences like emotion, propaganda, etc.
Re:IRS Files $44B Claims Against Bankrupt FTX
by xapata on Thursday May 11, 2023 @03:46PM
(#35907450)
Those are inconsistent beliefs, if we're talking about Eugene Fama's hypothesis.
Just like the rest of economics, the efficient market hypothesis is a nice model without any basis in reality. The fact that speculative bubbles exist should be enouh to disprove it.
Re:IRS Files $44B Claims Against Bankrupt FTX
by xapata on Thursday May 11, 2023 @10:27PM
(#35911195)
I guess that's the big question. Market behavior certainly can look like there are speculative bubbles, but Fama hypothesizes a different interpretation of the evidence.
I'm not a believer, but there is some value in the thought.
Re:IRS Files $44B Claims Against Bankrupt FTX
by mrguyorama on Thursday May 11, 2023 @03:43PM
(#35907409)
If you believe the efficient market hypothesis can actually apply to an existing stock market, I would like to offer you an incredible price to buy the Eiffel Tower! Hurry up! This offer is only valid for a few hours! People are lining up to get this offer
If you're an efficient-market believer, there's no such thing as a "down" market, because the price is always correct.