Re:A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 ...
by achompas on Saturday February 11, 2012 @05:52PM
(#3580422)
So what if he hasn't played against an elite defensive team. That is irrelevant to determine whether or not he will succeed.
I think the bigger concern is that our small data sample on Lin's performance is significantly biased in that he has played teams with poor defense at the 1 & 2 (guard positions). Derek Fisher is no defensive All-Star.
I can't verify this, though--haven't done sabremetric research in a while. Doesn't Basketball Prospectus have a section ranking guards on their defensive play?
If the Knicks elite players can get their act together, then Lin only needs to contribute positively in order to maintain a strong career.
This is a non-trivial problem. Conditional on being the offense's #1 option, Lin has played well. How will that change when Melo and Amare return, and he has to set them up? When those guys are healthy, Lin is a #3 option at best (maybe lower, as he has no outside jumper).
I think the bigger concern is that our small data sample on Lin's performance is significantly biased in that he has played teams with poor defense at the 1 & 2 (guard positions). Derek Fisher is no defensive All-Star.
I can't verify this, though--haven't done sabremetric research in a while. Doesn't Basketball Prospectus have a section ranking guards on their defensive play?
If the Knicks elite players can get their act together, then Lin only needs to contribute positively in order to maintain a strong career.
This is a non-trivial problem. Conditional on being the offense's #1 option, Lin has played well. How will that change when Melo and Amare return, and he has to set them up? When those guys are healthy, Lin is a #3 option at best (maybe lower, as he has no outside jumper).