Re:Nate Silver: Some personal news
by RC_ITR on Tuesday May 02, 2023 @07:29PM
(#35795649)
He regularly underperforms the Vegas line.
He makes bad models.
Nate put 2021/22 warriors at 0.5% to win, Vegas was +900.
Nate put 2020/21 bucks at 10% to win, Vegas was +550.
If you can’t even come close to beating the line, you’re not a good model. He’s just transparent about his variables.
Edit: To be clear I don’t gamble, I just follow sports and like data analysis, so this isn’t a bank account thing.
He makes bad models.
Nate put 2021/22 warriors at 0.5% to win, Vegas was +900. Nate put 2020/21 bucks at 10% to win, Vegas was +550. If you can’t even come close to beating the line, you’re not a good model. He’s just transparent about his variables.
Edit: To be clear I don’t gamble, I just follow sports and like data analysis, so this isn’t a bank account thing.