Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and can now speak freely about his AI concern

Re:Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and can now speak freely ab... by emtel on Tuesday May 02, 2023 @12:21AM (#35783332)

Think a little bit deeper about what it means to be able to predict the next token. Think about what a predictor has to do in order to do this extremely accurately across a very large corpus of text.

There is a big difference between being able to predict what a median human might write next, and being able to predict, in all cases, what the particular human author of a particular passage will write next.

Or from another angle: the human authors of training data may have made errors when writing the data. The token predictor may learn to correctly predict those errors. These are not the same thing!

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Re:Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and can now speak freely ab... by mrtranscendence on Tuesday May 02, 2023 @11:40AM (#35789280)

I'm sorry, I'm not sure I grasp the salience here to super-intelligence. The model may be able to predict accurately what any particular human will write, but profoundly intelligent humans will be quite rare in the training data, and even those humans don't approach what people seem to mean when they talk about super-intelligence. Perhaps I'm missing your point.

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