Sure. A heat pump only needs to be 170% efficient to make back the generation losses. As for infrastructure losses, natural gas distribution has leaks as well.

Also, if the power plant is integrated into a CHP system to heat nearby households then generation gets back some percent.

Good point.

Methane leaks are much more environmentally damaging than often appreciated because methane is such a potent greenhouse gas.

Heat pumps are dramatically more efficient. A good gas furnace is 95% efficient. Meanwhile, a ductless heat pump can be 300%. They more more energy than they consume. That's the huge advantage.

Converting gas heat to heat pumps, even if they have a gas heat backup for worst case days in northern latitudes, would still be a big win in the net environmentally.