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A comment on Fire Sale: $300M San Francisco Office Tower, Mostly Empty. Parent comment

Re:Fire Sale: $300M San Francisco Office Tower, Mostly Empty by BurningFrog on Thursday April 27, 2023 @02:01PM (#35732130)
That may well be true, but the downside of not renting the property out is that you get zero income.

That has to be more important in the long run at least?

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Re:Fire Sale: $300M San Francisco Office Tower, Mostly Empty by lamontcg on Thursday April 27, 2023 @02:50PM (#35732855)
When you're paying nearly zero interest that doesn't matter.

Most loans right now still haven't hit their maturity dates and are still on old, low interest rates.

Shit is gonna get absolutely wild as loans hit their maturity dates in the current interest rate environment:

https://cred-iq.com/blog/index.php/2023/04/20/mounting-matur...

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Re:Fire Sale: $300M San Francisco Office Tower, Mostly Empty by yourapostasy on Thursday April 27, 2023 @03:53PM (#35733664)
During the GFC, most US CRE defaults were from maturity default. I'd like to see a heat map of where and how much CRE loans are maturing in the next 6, 12, 18, 24, etc. months out. Or I'd just like to know where to even find the CRE loan data in the first place (county clerk's records?). Would make some nice data is beautiful charts.

A big chunk of CRE paper is on amazingly short terms. I grew up in an era where 7-10 year paper was common on CRE, but these days 2-3 year is apparently the norm. If so, the liquidity and in some cases solvency drying out in CRE lending deals will get spicy.

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