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A comment on Disney is shrinking FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver (and his models) are leaving. Parent comment

Re:Disney is shrinking FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver (and ... by greesil on Tuesday April 25, 2023 @09:10PM (#35708690)
His approach is pretty sound, and straightforward if you listen to his podcast. Proper treatment of fat tails via student t distributions and correlated variables with good (subjective) judgement on polling quality.

I find that most people with negative views of Nate's approach are innumerate with regards to statistics. They don't criticize the model because they can't be bothered to understand it, or even basic probability, and certainly don't rank his performance vs other modelers which wouldn't require understanding the model.

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Re:Disney is shrinking FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver (and ... by petulla on Tuesday April 25, 2023 @10:25PM (#35709083)
No: https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/10/24/reverse-en...
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Re:Disney is shrinking FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver (and ... by greesil on Tuesday April 25, 2023 @10:34PM (#35709127)
What are the consequences of this, in terms of prediction accuracy?
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Re:Disney is shrinking FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver (and ... by greesil on Wednesday April 26, 2023 @02:29AM (#35710181)
so basically what TFA says is if you build a new model on Nate's model outputs and use that to compute conditional probabilites of various improbable scenarios you see weird shit. State level polling data according to Nate isn't all that great (read: high uncertainty, moves around when a new poll comes out) unless it's a swing state. But hey when you go looking into noise you are going to see.... weird shit.

Did you Google any other good blog posts?

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