Yes, it’s quite possible that “democratizing” election forecasts is bad. A public forecast may influence the likelihood of voting while a private forecast would not.

Not having public forecasting influences voting.

Either way votes are going to be influenced.

The benefit of democratizing those forecasts is to reduce surprises / rigged election accusations.

I don’t think this is the case at all. The whole purpose of private forecasting is to judge how your efforts are doing with the electorate, and adjust your strategy, poll/assess again, rinse and repeat.

They don’t just forecast and shrug at the results.