As a hiring manager, I’ve noticed most peer hiring managers vastly overestimate their ability to hire.

What I’ve seen happen is that there are two narratives they flip on: I hired this great person and they are doing amazing so I am amazing; I hired this person and they aren’t doing great so I fired them so I am amazing.

Of course, they also tend to be terrible at assessing who is actually good/bad.

I call it the “arbitrary onion”: layer after layer of plausible claims that each turn out to be just as arbitrary as the outer claim.