My hunch is that OpenAI's window of supremacy will be short. Even if they keep being SOTA, the open sourced models will eat away market underneath them. By the next year they will only be able to sell GPT-4 or 5. At some point the open models will be good enough for 99% of use cases.

Not sure at all..

They are siting on gigantic data flywheel of users usages.. (and private access to the best machine that can utilized that data..)

So, IMHO it would be hard to catch with their speed (not in this hype cycle).

Quality is one aspect, running them is another. If I've already got everything setup with them and they work efficiently, they could also offer open source models and let me pay for usage. Both bursty usage and low constant usage benefit from paying per token and having some shared & large infrastructure to use. I don't want to be running a bunch of h100s, I just want my requests processed.

If they're selling gpt-5 and let me pay for LLaMa or whatever is also out then I'll just use them unless pricing is wildly different.

> I don't want to be running a bunch of h100s, I just want my requests processed.

Assuming you don't have sensitive data and that you never try anything outside the rules.

Those are hosting issues really and shouldn't be an issue for most companies.

I'd be absolutely shocked if they don't launch a version where it's run on more secure setups, particularly as they've got huge Microsoft backing.

You can run this in azure which I feel solves basically all of the hosting issues.