Re:Michael Crichton: Aliens Cause Global Warming
by wlievens on Thursday November 06, 2008 @04:37AM
(#355520)
Most of the Drake Equation factors are fractions in the range [0, 1]. So you do know a lot about the range of the variable.
Re:Michael Crichton: Aliens Cause Global Warming
by mindslight on Thursday November 06, 2008 @05:34AM
(#355550)
But that's just self-deception facilitated by using a linear instead of a log scale. It's easy to choose a conservative "really small" number of 1% or .01%, but what's to say that you're still not off by many orders of magnitude?
Re:Michael Crichton: Aliens Cause Global Warming
by yummyfajitas on Thursday November 06, 2008 @06:32AM
(#355577)
In simple terms, this bound tells us that the probability that aliens exist lies somewhere in [0,1].
Re:Michael Crichton: Aliens Cause Global Warming
by dejb on Thursday November 06, 2008 @08:45AM
(#355662)
By definition all probabilities lie in this range. It doesn't change the fact that within this range of R (Real Numbers) the number of logarithms are uncountable.
In simple terms... for every real number >1 (let's call that number x) the number 1/x also exists. Mind blowing huh!
.. Also I was primarily talking about the TTAPS equation which seemed to be the main focus of the parent's threads.
Actually if you know nothing about the variable then you will almost certainly be off by an infinite number of orders of magnitude (log(infinity) = infinity). Saying that you might be wrong by several orders of magnitude implies that you do know quite a bit about the range of the variable.
By definition most judgements are based on incomplete information. Otherwise no judgement is needed. So the argument that an action should or should not be taken because the evidence is not 100% complete is spurious.