The bigger political problem in US specifically is just how hostile the public opinion is to anything that "stinks" of socialism. There's also the perception that AI is automating away "useless" white collar jobs, and not "real man's work". The right-wing intelligentsia who tries to sell UBI to their electorate is having a hard time getting past that, but I don't think it's insurmountable with the right approach, and it's also much less of an issue in most other countries. In any case, I think attitudes will change very quickly once more people outside of tech and art get first-hands experience with job loss, if not for themselves than for someone they know.
The harm between now and then is serious and real, yes. I just don't see any feasible way to prevent it through regulation, not to mention that it would face just as many political hurdles. We have already jumped; let's not waste time trying to flap our arms to see if that works, and try to arrange for a safe landing instead.
That would be nice. I sincerely hope that we can swing that. I just don't see a realistic path for it. And almost everything that I've been hearing the enthusiasts say just makes everything seem more hopeless.
But I'm very much hoping that I'm wrong. At this point, hoping is the only thing I have the power to do.
So, regardless of one's ethics and political philosophy, we have a very strong collective interest as an economic class to prevent this scenario. Most of us don't have any more direct political power than your average voter, but we can throw more money at the politicians. In my experience, this doesn't help one bit with "wedge issues", but this all is so new that nobody has managed to weaponize it across political lines just yet.
Exactly so.
> Even a sensible implementation of UBI could fix the most immediate problem
Which is simply not in the cards. The people who have the wealth are absolutely not going to give it away, because wealth equals power and they want power.
So what is more likely to happen is that the very wealthy will become fewer in number, and much wealthier, and everyone else will become poorer (in absolute, not relative terms) due to the reduction in the amount of jobs available that pay a living wage.
> I think we're looking at much bigger shifts in our economic system within the next couple decades.
Perhaps so -- but you can't ignore the serious harm between now and then.