Everything I've been able to find indicates that crime statistics are trending downwards and are already much lower than historical levels.

People generally are uncomfortable with crime being up 50% in 3 years, even if it's still down 30% from 1991.

Where did the 50% number come from?

Q1 2023 appears to be down nearly 10% on Q1 2022 and 25% compared with Q1 2017.

2022 as a whole was lower in most areas than 2017 with 9,000 fewer incidents.

[0] https://www.sanfranciscopolice.org/stay-safe/crime-data/crim...

Underreporting seems like a huge problem, even here with our blooming crime rate. I've had to call the police twice since covid, once because by house caught a stray bullet from a car chase/shootout, and the cops said that the only people who bothered to report were myself and the elementary school down the street. The folks in the other house that took rounds had no desire to interact with the police.

However, I work in the physical security space (eg: cameras, video AI, access control, etc.).

Overall, it does not feel like actual crime rates are down, but there are many things that are simply going unreported. Thus, the stats might look better, but they are not always a representation of reality.

As one example, loss prevention departments have always been busy, but they could usually get a response from the police. Now you have retail theft gangs/rings openly walking out with thousands of dollars of product, getting into a stolen vehicle, driving off, and police more or less just not even returning a phone call in many areas.

This is not everywhere at this point, but a lot of major metropolitan areas are seemingly observing significantly increased "petty" crimes, which are going unreported and unresponded to.