Peter Zeihan is basically always right in terms of first principles. Where there is time & opportunity for others to course-correct is where I've seen most of his predictions go awry.

A great example is the price cap -- enacted via insurers -- on Russian oil, which was a remarkably creative measure. PZ was spot-on about the precursive factors, specifically a) that insurance concerns dominate global shipping, and b) that the world was in for some serious pain if Russian oil stops abruptly.