Re:AI won't steal your job, people leveraging AI will
by lanstin on Monday April 03, 2023 @03:21PM
(#35429797)
Are you sure about the nearly human levels of computational? Even at a trillion or so, I thought we still had several orders of magnitude before the free parameters approached anything like the (currently known) information density of an adult brain?
Re:AI won't steal your job, people leveraging AI will
by Retric on Monday April 03, 2023 @05:20PM
(#35431445)
Yea, I mean close on a logarithmic scale though it’s not easy to make direct comparisons.
A low end estimate of say 10 cycles per neuron / second * 90 billion neurons * 10,000 connections per neuron is already 90 peta operations per second.
Of course we also expect AI’s to be faster but conversely we aren’t trying to simulate a person that needs to walk and talk, just a rough equivalent of whatever is needed for some task.
Re:AI won't steal your job, people leveraging AI will
by aezart on Monday April 03, 2023 @06:23PM
(#35432139)
"Short enough sample" is definitely key. With a small model like llama 13B, you can watch the output degrade in real time as it gets longer. When the only thing in its context is 1000 words of human prompt, the next LLM-predicted sentence will probably be acceptable. But by the time it's added a few hundred words of its own output to the context, it's going downhill fast.
Bigger models slow the rate of degradation, but that's it.
I suspect AI getting good enough to create a Marvel movie is basically indistinguishable from it being able to create a good movie. The problem is LLM’s are basically just creating gibberish which mimics meaningful text well enough you don’t notice it’s meaningless as long as it’s a short enough sample.
Modern AI techniques are approaching human level capacity by combining a lifetime worth of information in their training sets with nearly human levels of computation. It’s not at the level of professionals, but being roughly as good as a teenager means crossing that threshold could happen well before people are ready for it.