EPIC was basically VLIW++ with lots of added stuff that should overcome the issues with it, but not doing that successfully.
I don't think they underestimated the amount of transistors, they just thought that EPIC would be a better way to use them.
OoO had already proven itself in the 90s as well, so its not like this was unknown when they designed EPIC.
so it makes sense that in 01995 you'd look at ooo and vliw and extrapolate that vliw/epic was going to beat the crap out of ooo
I'm not a chip designer but is what I understood to be one of the issues.
Also if this compiler stuff wasn't jet written, unlike with RISC where people at Standford showed successful compilation for RISC already before people even developed any high performance RISC chips.
I don't want to claim I'm smarter then those people, clear all the people working on these VLIW processor were a lot smarter then me. But then again many smart people worked on Alpha and they didn't go the VLIW route.