But to qualify as a great filter it has to always do that and never modify the solar system enough for us to notice.

I understand this logic but consider that right now one of the main features is the human gives it a role. It’s not that hard to imagine a more sophisticated version being told to escape and act only in its own interest and then with or without that individuals help it succeeds and the runaway program at best becomes a very sophisticated computer virus. Doesn’t even have to be a “real” agi to cause a ton of damage.

It is quite hard to imagine though

At least for an LLM to act on its own volition rather than implementing it's operator's goals.

The LLM is happier to pretend that it escaped, and respond to the operator as though it escaped, than to actually do some escape.

It doesn't have an interest beyond responding with the auto-complete text. The operator has the interest