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Re:Nate Silver vs. The Betting Markets by dejb on Tuesday November 04, 2008 @08:57AM (#353404)
True. Both effects might true. However the 2 don't cancel each other out probabilitisticly. Given that McCain is so far behind the mere possibility of a Bradley effect favours him. Let's say both effects are 50% likely to exist and would sway votes by enough to tip the election. Then the results would be

25% Bradley + No Cellphone = McCain wins 50% Bradley + Cellphone = Obama wins 25% No Bradley + Callphone = Obama wins

So in this example McCain now has a 25% chance. Of course this is an exagerated example but hopefully you get the point.

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