Re:The Death of a Technical Skill (Adobe Flash, 2020) [pdf]
by arvinsim on Monday March 27, 2023 @06:16AM
(#35324851)
Guess that means that engineers should embrace the management side then.
Re:The Death of a Technical Skill (Adobe Flash, 2020) [pdf]
by rg111 on Monday March 27, 2023 @08:53AM
(#35326036)
Total numbers of managers will change, too, and the remaining ones will have increased workload.
Re:The Death of a Technical Skill (Adobe Flash, 2020) [pdf]
by b_t_s on Monday March 27, 2023 @10:40AM
(#35327256)
Working at a higher level of abstraction doesn't necessarily mean we need fewer programmers, because it also means that more projects are economically viable. The software I write now with its complexity and degree of UI polish would be laughably uneconomical with the tools and techniques I was using 20 years ago. Even working at the same company on the same app, 10 years ago I was probably 5x less productive with older tools, yet we've 5xd our headcount in that time despite those efficiency gains. So yea there will certainly be companies that need fewer devs, but there will be new opportunities unlocked(though admittedly the transition process can be brutal on the individual level even when things work out well in the end)
Re:The Death of a Technical Skill (Adobe Flash, 2020) [pdf]
by Papirola on Friday March 31, 2023 @03:37PM
(#35392330)
people use to program by punching cards. then compilers came.
I'd say the opposite is about to happen: the boilerplate work will be done by AI, leaving more time to higher level abstractions to humans.
Sure, developers will be working on a higher level of abstraction, but in the higher level, you will need lesser people.
So, people will be laid off. Make no mistake of that.
And there will be segments where entire products can be spewed out by AI. There will be 100% layoff on those teams.
A manager can now supervise 5-7 products and there will be one "Chief/Principal Engineer" who does the prompting for 2-3 products. Then there will be systems and devops people with much lesser number.
All of IT people won't lose their jobs, for sure. But many many will be laid off and hiring will significantly be dropped.
And owners/shareholders of IT companies will grow richer and make bank when the techies will be unemployed.
The techies may go on to teach Math or Physics to High Schoolers, or find other jobs, but then those people will be replaced.
UBI will be the way to go. But countries like India, China, Indonesia will be screwed.
Mark my words, very bad days are coming.