Presumably it would need to be trained with good examples of solutions to complex problems. Maybe there just won't be that many for the foreseeable future.

Yeh exactly. AI was trained on real data, and in a few years, there will only be AI versions of real data to run off. ie. alot of that really crappy code will be deployed to github, and the result will be that and more shitty code will be written.

Thats pretty much what has happened over the last 30 years. You need less skills to produce more and more. Google search started it all, i remmeber back then I quipped the Offshored devs wouldnt be able to get a job without an internet connection because previously us engineers prided ourselves on understand and memorising APIs. The Ai programmer will outpace India's cert mills in quick succession but it wont benifit anyone except the Large Corperations who own the Ai. Atleast the Google devs added questions to SO, the AI dev is leecher who only profits, plagerises, never contributes.

Interesting, point. But won't, there be allot of so called AI whisperers who train and own models that are very good.