Sell magazine subscriptions door to door?
The second point is wrong. You can automatically synthesize code from a specification (and you could already do so before LLMs, arguably even better with SMT solvers), but who is going to write the specification in the first place, buddy?
That's the problem that's never been solved, and it will never be solved because it can't be solved. It is not easier to write a specification in English than it is to write it in C++. It's like saying that math would become easier if we took away the burden of using mathematical notation. Not only it wouldn't get any easier, it would get significantly more difficult!
Lies are dangerous, because if you say too many of them, you start believing your own. "AI is like a human you can talk to", they said. Now they act as though that's true, and they talk to the AI, without realizing it's the same faithful mechanical slave it has always been, perfectly capable of carrying out nonsensical instructions to their nonsensical results.
And the instructions are necessarily nonsensical, because they insist on using an interface too wide, where saying something precise is all but impossible.
Yes, a.k.a. programming.
If you assume that you have a machine powerful enough to do that, then you have a machine powerful enough to do anything at all: you are assuming the thing you're trying to prove.
There exists no universe where a machine that can do whatever you want by being instructed verbally isn't also replacing the one instructing it...
In terms of AI taking ALL THE JOBS... Maybe it will happen? Maybe it won't. But what action can we take from all this doom-scrolling? Other than "we should all be VERY CONCERNED." Which is just a way for us to stand around wringing our hands.
My conclusion is much the same as always: I can't grow complacent. Which we've known for years. "The industry is changing." Of course it is. It's been changing for ~80 years. And if you go back to similar advances, you'll see similar arguments.
Will this time be different? Maybe. But until it does, I think I'll continue to learn new skills (not just new languages/frameworks), refine my problem solving and troubleshooting, and above all, refine my people skills.
But I think I'll avoid the doom-scrolling. Either AI is coming for ALL THE JOBS or it isn't, but even knowing that it is doesn't give me anything actionable to do about it.
However, let's take a step back and consider a few basic arguments that this article makes - I suspect most here would only disagree with the very last.
Firstly, the demand for quality software is far greater than the current supply. If there were suddenly twice the number of mid-level software engineers, there would still be more than enough work for them.
Secondly, software engineering is a process that can be refined and created almost entirely without the interference of non-deterministic real-world systems like roads, weather, or courts. This makes it an ideal field for automation and AI to play a larger role.
Thirdly, a sufficiently intelligent computer could exponentially increase its own efficacy in performing purely-digital tasks -- basically an [intelligence explosion](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/intelligence-explosion) but much softer and much much more achievable (how smart is a mid-level SWE, really?).
Finally, LLMs that get a ~100 on an IQ test are enough to start that cycle.
Perhaps you're super duper convinced that the last point is wrong. Perhaps you have strongly-held convictions about explainability, symbolic reasoning, higher level thinking, etc. But if you really sit down and think, what are the chances you're wrong? What are the chances that we get another leap or two in the next 1-5 years like we just got with DL transformers?
If you're feeling excited and anxious about the implications of this, you're not alone. I've found that it's a difficult topic to discuss with those close to me, especially if they're not familiar with the latest developments in AI. If you have thoughts on how to use our SWE experience to navigate this exciting but uncertain landscape while maintaining a sense of self-preservation and helping others as much as possible, I'd be interested in hearing your ideas.