Re:Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008
by dragonwriter on Saturday March 25, 2023 @03:26AM
(#35300327)
> This is not a misprediction because in any sane world, the prospects of very high inflation would result in a spike of the gold price.
Since it was a prediction of the behavior in the real world, and it doesn’t reflect what actually occurred, it is a misprediction.
The fact that the predictor (or you) believes that a world in which the prediction was accurate would be more sane doesn’t make the wrong prediction better, since it wasn’t offered as a prediction of what would occur in some hypothetical sane world.
Since it was a prediction of the behavior in the real world, and it doesn’t reflect what actually occurred, it is a misprediction.
The fact that the predictor (or you) believes that a world in which the prediction was accurate would be more sane doesn’t make the wrong prediction better, since it wasn’t offered as a prediction of what would occur in some hypothetical sane world.