If I recall correctly, the general consensus is that while there are people who do very well in predicting future events and developments (google "super forecasters"), nobody can do so reliably beyond a time horizon of five years or so.

Agree with the second part.

As for the first part - yes, it would count. Timing of things is impossible to predict of course. But being right in the first place, shouldn't be underestimated !

Let's take crypto as an example - one can predict it's going to 0, and one can say it will go to 1M$. Even though you don't know when, being right is the only chance you make something out of it.

Peter Schiff has predicted 23 of the last 2 recessions.

Easy to laugh at him, I'd say it's more like the doctor who tells you to quit smoking or it's eventually going to kill you. The fact that you haven't died yet doesn't exactly prove the doctor is an idiot or wrong.