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Re:Banks as Collateral Damage in a Class War by jefftk on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @10:53AM (#35261971)
> everyone gets the same nominal payout, debtors must use the payout to pay off debt, non-debtors may keep the money and do what they please with it

Wouldn't this be very inflationary? It's approximately equivalent to "give everyone $X". I don't see any discussion at the link about how people would react to the dollar (and any dollar-denominated savings, wages, etc) suddenly being worth far less?

Re:Banks as Collateral Damage in a Class War by TheOtherHobbes on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @11:12AM (#35262246)
You mean more inflationary than an economy based on extraction and profiteering which has increasingly impoverished more and more of the population?

What's the difference between money suddenly being worth far less [1] and real income dropping so individuals have much less spending power - which is something that has been happening for most of the population since the late 70s?

[1] Assuming inflation would be the result, which is debatable.

Re:Banks as Collateral Damage in a Class War by jefftk on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @11:42AM (#35262823)
> real income dropping so individuals have much less spending power - which is something that has been happening for most of the population since the late 70s?

This isn't true, though, even if you restrict to the US? Here's inflation-adjusted median individual income: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N It's up 40% since the late 70s.

Re:Banks as Collateral Damage in a Class War by rybosworld on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @01:15PM (#35264133)
The problem with the Fred reports is that CPI is grossly undercalculated.
Re:Banks as Collateral Damage in a Class War by jefftk on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @02:22PM (#35265103)
How much do think, say, a 1978 dollar is worth in 2021 dollars? Why?
Re:Banks as Collateral Damage in a Class War by logicchains on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @11:44AM (#35262847)
>which is something that has been happening for most of the population since the late 70s

This started happening as soon as the US dollar was completely unpegged from gold, allowing unlimited seigniorage to banks (the first spenders of newly printed money) via the Cantillon effect.

Re:Banks as Collateral Damage in a Class War by fundad on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @11:49AM (#35262923)
Funding the DOD is inflationary but creates jobs (in a tight labor market oops)
Re:Banks as Collateral Damage in a Class War by shjake on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @11:52AM (#35262972)
> You mean more inflationary than an economy based on extraction and profiteering which has increasingly impoverished more and more of the population?

Yes?

I mean that’s sort of what happened during Covid (savings rates increased dramatically in the short term)…

Re:Banks as Collateral Damage in a Class War by kodah on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @11:19AM (#35262374)
It would be inflationary to anyone who doesn't get a payout, I think. That means, any country which does not get that payout and then distribute it.
Re:Banks as Collateral Damage in a Class War by jefftk on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @11:36AM (#35262720)
It's inflationary even just among people who do get the payout. Imagine the income and net worths of a silly model society are:

        income    net worth
       --------  -----------
    A:  $20,000           $0
    B:  $30,000       $1,000
    C:  $50,000     -$80,000
    D: $100,000     $300,000
    E: $500,000  $10,000,000
Now you have a "modern jubilie" at $100,000:

        income    net worth
       --------  -----------
    A:  $20,000     $100,000
    B:  $30,000     $101,000
    C:  $50,000      $20,000
    D: $100,000     $400,000
    E: $500,000  $10,100,000
You're going to see a huge increase in how much A, B, and C are willing to spend: there are lots of things they've been wanting to buy but couldn't afford. Trying to buy them (nicer food, better housing, etc) will bid up their prices.
Re:Banks as Collateral Damage in a Class War by recursivedoubts on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @12:13PM (#35263306)
Again, the vast majority of people are debtors, and would be forced to pay down their debt. It isn't free and clear money for everyone: only non-debtors would get that and they are few in number and relatively wealthy, so the additional money would most likely end up saved rather than spent, and be relatively small compared to the extinguishing of debt.
Re:Banks as Collateral Damage in a Class War by Nemi on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @01:22PM (#35264214)
Do you expect that when people are no longer in debt that they will just keep their spending down? Or is it possible that they now have a “wealth effect” and feel like they can spend more? What keeps them from racking up debt again to previous levels?

This idea seems wildly inflationary to me, but I would love to hear why I am wrong. We have to remember that someone’s expense is someone else’s income. In other words, if all debt is paid off, then lendors will get a huge payday and have excess income to spend. In the end, this is exactly like injecting money directly into the economy like we did with covid stimulus.

Re:Banks as Collateral Damage in a Class War by recursivedoubts on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @02:04PM (#35264840)
Obviously the debt jubilee needs to be paired with higher (that is, non-negative) real interest rates. Keen talks about what a sustainable interest rate regime looks like in a fiat system, and has computer models to argue his case.

A debt jubilee is an emergency surgery to deal with a critical situation. Convincing the patient to eat healthy is also important, but needs to happen afterwards.

Re:Banks as Collateral Damage in a Class War by moneytide1 on Thursday March 23, 2023 @12:05PM (#35276903)
> emergency surgery to deal with a critical situation.

"A nation of thirty millions of people, had been for ten years agitated by the most terrible convulsions... Conflagrations had laid the palaces of the wealthy in ruins, and the green lawns where their children had played, had been crimsoned with the blood of fathers and sons, mothers and daughters.

A gigantic system of robbery had seized upon houses and lands and every species of property and had turned thousands of the opulent out into destitution, beggary, and death. Pollution had been legalized by the voice of God-defying lust, and France, la belle France, had been converted into a disgusting warehouse of infamy. Law, with suicidal hand, had destroyed itself, and the decisions of the legislature swayed to and fro, in accordance with the hideous clamors of the mob. The guillotine, with gutters ever clotted with human gore, was the only argument which anarchy condescended to use. Effectually it silenced every remonstrating tongue.

Constitution after constitution had risen, like mushrooms, in a night, and like mushrooms had perished in a day. Civil war was raging with bloodhound fury in France, Monarchists and Jacobins grappling each other infuriate with despair. The allied kings of Europe, who by their alliance had fanned these flames of rage and ruin, were gazing with terror upon the portentous prodigy, and were surrounding France with their navies and their armies. The people had been enslaved for centuries by the king and the nobles. Their oppression had been execrable, and it had become absolutely unendurable. 'We, the millions,' they exclaimed in their rage, "will no longer minister to your voluptuousness, and pride, and lust.'

'You shall, you insolent dogs,' exclaimed kings and nobles, 'we heed not your barking.'

'You shall,' reiterated the Pope, in the portentous thunderings of the Vatican. 'You shall', came echoed back from the palaces of Vienna, from the dome of the Kremlin, from the seraglio of the Turk, and, in tones deeper, stronger, more resolute, from constitutional, liberty-loving, happy England.

Then was France a volcano, and its lava-streams deluged Europe. The people were desperate. In the blind fury of their frenzied self-defense they lost all consideration. The castles of the nobles were but the monuments of past taxation and servitude. With yells of hatred the infuriated populace razed them to the ground. The palaces of the kings, where, for uncounted centuries, dissolute monarchs had reveled in enervating and heaven-forbidden pleasures, were but national badges of the bondage of the people... At one bound France had passed from despotism to anarchy. The kingly tyrant, with golden crown and iron sceptre, surrounded by wealthy nobles and dissolute beauties, had disappeared, and a many-headed monster, rapacious and blood-thirsty, vulgar and revolting, had emerged from mines and workshops and the cellars of vice and penury, like one of the spectres of fairy tales to fill his place. France had passed from Monarchy, not to healthy Republicanism, but to Jacobinism, to the reign of the mob. Napoleon utterly abhorred the tyranny of the king. He also utterly abhorred the despotism of vulgar, violent, sanguinary Jacobin misrule. The latter he regarded with even deeper repugnance than the former.

'I frankly confess,' said Napoleon, again and again, "that I must choose between Bourbon oppression, and mob violence, I infinitely prefer the former.'

... He had two foes to encounter, each formidable, the royalists of combined Europe and the mob of Paris. The quiet and undoubting self-confidence with which he entered upon this enterprise, is one of the most remarkable events in the whole of his extraordinary career. He took with him no armies to hew down opposition. He engaged in no deep-laid and wide-spread conspiracy. Relying upon the energies of his own mind, and upon the sympathies of the great mass of the people, he went alone, with but one or two companions, to whom he revealed not his thoughts, to gather into his hands the scattered reins of power. Never did he encounter more fearful peril. The cruisers of England, Russia, Turkey, of allied Europe in arms against France, thronged the Mediterranean. How could he hope to escape them? The guillotine was red with blood. Every one who had dared to oppose the mob had perished upon it. How could Napoleon venture, single-handed, to beard this terrible lion in his den?"

- John Stevens Cabot Abbott, "Napoleon Bonaparte" (1855)

Re:Banks as Collateral Damage in a Class War by kodah on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @05:07PM (#35267103)
I'm actually very lost in terms of what inflation means anymore. As far as I've been aware, inflation comes from the cost/benefit relationship that is supply and demand.

For instance, housing inflation has to do with people who have long-running cheap mortgages who don't want to sell their asset just to pay a higher monthly premium while the market is in low supply. So shouldn't your calculation also take into account supply and demand?

Re:Banks as Collateral Damage in a Class War by NoboruWataya on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @08:36PM (#35269071)
Their post does take into account supply and demand. Giving people a big payout will leave them with a lot more money to spend on stuff, ie, the supply of money will increase massively. Unless there is a similarly massive increase in demand for money (ie, people selling new goods or services), then the relationship between supply and demand will lead to a significant devaluing of money, aka inflation.
Re:Banks as Collateral Damage in a Class War by ajmurmann on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @11:36AM (#35262709)
It would be inflationary to the currency. I don't think a inflation applies to individua, it's about the exchange rate of one unit of currency to goods and services. I think you might be conflating "inflationary" and "making poorer"

In this case the currency would need hugely inflated, but it would only harm people who didn't get the payment. This might lead to everyone getting a million dollar. Now a carrot might cost $50 which doesn't matter, because you got a lot more dollars.

Inflation is a problem when the costs of different things, especially wages, don't increase at the same rate or you have a lot of savings in cash.

Re:Banks as Collateral Damage in a Class War by kodah on Thursday March 23, 2023 @09:08PM (#35283769)
I didn't see your reply until today, but I believe you're spot on with my understanding. Thanks for the breakdown.
Re:Banks as Collateral Damage in a Class War by recursivedoubts on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @12:10PM (#35263245)
Ideally, not in real terms: debt will be extinguished, but that debt has already been spent into the economy. The underlying asset equity (say, a house) will be transferred to the debtor. Some non-debtors (not many, in todays economy) will get a big immediate cash influx, but most of them are wealthy and will save, rather than spend that cash.

Relatively, the wealth of the poor will increase more because, say, 100k, is life changing for a poor person but not as big a deal for a rich person.

The important part is reducing the total debt load and the exponent sitting on top of it.

Would it be perfect? Of course not, nothing is. But it's the fairest way I have heard of to broadly reduce the debt load in a manner that addresses the underlying issue of too much debt.

Re:Banks as Collateral Damage in a Class War by jefftk on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @12:29PM (#35263514)
While many people have debt, most people with debt don't have that much. A large enough payment that, say, brings the 90th percentile debtor to debt-free would much more than pay off the debt of the 50th.

Additionally people would take on more debt, after freed from their current monthly payments, so you would predict consumption would rise even if the only effect were debt cancellation.

Re:Banks as Collateral Damage in a Class War by PuppyTailWags on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @01:13PM (#35264112)
I don't think people would take on more debt after being freed from current debt. Usually, the debt that is the most crushing is student, medical, mortgage debt-- it's unlikely people just go on to sign themselves up for more of that.
Re:Banks as Collateral Damage in a Class War by jefftk on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @02:20PM (#35265068)
I agree that most people aren't going to voluntarily go out and pick up some medical debt, but freed of their monthly payments they might decide to go back to school (student debt) or buy a larger house (mortgage debt). Or they might buy a new car on credit. For the same reasons that people today with no debt often choose to go into debt to fund a purchase, if we wiped out existing debt and didn't change anything else about the financial system I'd expect many people who'd just had their debts erased would also make purchases with new debt.
Re:Banks as Collateral Damage in a Class War by barumrho on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @12:32PM (#35263546)
Hmm wait, what do you mean by “real terms” because that usually means inflation-adjusted.