Let’s play a game of “conservative impacts of AI on the labor force”

- the Bureau of Labor Statistics thinks we should have 15% more software engineers in 10 years. What if we had 10% fewer?

-800k project managers - how about 650k in 10 years?

-nearly 4 million executive assistants and admins - let’s take 1M off that total

-millions combined (still) in clerical roles across industries, including financial, medical, warehouse, etc. let’s take 1-2M off that total

- journalists, writers, editors, graphic designers, interior designers, illustrators, …

… and the list goes on. These are intentionally conservative numbers (no 50% cuts or jobs going away entirely) but they still add up to millions.

In what sense is any of that “conservative”?

(I mean, my intuition would be, for example, that it means more software engineers, and disproportionately even more PMs -- though probably often with a different title -- as it expabds the market for software solutions, and reduces the engineering effort to product decision ratio. But that’s not conservative, any more than your catastrophizing is.)

Okay let’s take the software industry out of it. Do you think millions of non-software jobs will be affected?